Why Asia Will Overtake America 為何亞洲將追上美國

翻譯自http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north847.html
本人自翻,品質不負責!

亞洲人製造便宜的電視與複雜的家庭劇院影音系統.美國人則購買它們.接著我們使用它們,對於西方經濟看電視的昂貴成本造成的生產力浪費比任何其他單一因素還要更高.唯一比較類似的是網路媒體.電視消耗了美國人的生活每天平均4到5小時.這個統計數字真的很嚇人.

以網路為基礎的時間浪費正在追上電視,特別是對於青少年.青少年每天花7到8小時在媒體相關的娛樂上.

我每天大約看1小時電視.最近一段時間比我過去35年看的還要多.在2008年我買了一個大螢幕HDTV和有線電視.我大約看了3部一小時的戲劇 - 沒有廣告(快轉)- 外加可能在周日上午(無廣告)看一部免費的電影.我試著看30分鐘Yes, Minister 在Netflix的重播,外加Netflix上至少一集的Jeeves & Wooster.當Foyle's War或續集開始時,我也看.這就是我的工作日娛樂,從4:30am開始,大約在7:30或8PM結束.一週六天.

我不浪費太多時間

3D浪費的時間

出於好奇,我整個週末去一家Best Buy看看新的Panasonic 3D電視有多棒.它真是太棒了.我看了四個模組中最小的模組: 50吋. 那個影像完全就像是阿凡達一樣.

Panasonic定價$2500.高級的2D組合約$2000,對於一項新科技來說這定價算便宜很有競爭力.你必須買一個3D藍光播放器.Panasonic廠牌的一組售價$400.你只得到一副眼鏡.額外的一組要$150.它們是電子式的.那就是Panasonic賴以得到先行者利潤的部份.

市場上非常少3D DVD.但是2D品質的就很讚了.它是電漿電視.

我是3D的專家.當我十歲時,我的奶奶帶我去看Bwana Devil,第一部現代3D電影.我們每個人都獲贈一副知名的偏光紙眼鏡.用來看什麼是歷史上最無聊的電影之一.那部電影花了一大筆錢.引領了3D風潮,持續了3年左右.接著CinemaScope取代了它.從此之後,3D就限於在迪士尼的Epcot播放.

我一直喜歡3D電影.我想偏光技術還很原始但值得去發展.紅藍眼鏡版本則不值得.

3D經驗主要的缺陷在於電影的亮度會被鏡片減弱.對於Panasonic電視科技來說的確如此.

儘我所能看,要完成電視體驗的最後一步驟: 不需額外的鏡片. 我預期在10年內能達成. 在那之後,它應該是像holodeck的全像投影或難以描述的東西.我們有7.1環繞音效.那是所有我們祖先的耳朵所需要的.如果我們不需要鏡片就能得到明亮的3D顯示,我們最後會面對虛擬實境: 電視不會再有任何技術上的改良. 從那時起電視將必須仰賴自己. 它可能將會如此.

除非他們把電極放進我們的大腦聯結喜劇笑感神經, TV的科技才會接近極限. 否則科技將會盡可能的拓展.

為什麼98%的電視內容很多人要看,無論是3D,2D.令我無法想像. 我了解大螢幕的運動節目用3D播放很讚. 但我只是小小的運動粉絲. 我的老闆, Leonard E. Read 習慣說: "我沒興趣知道誰贏."  至於3D實境節目, 他們像2D時一樣讓我覺得超級無聊. 套用到網路新聞也一樣.

電視是商業營利主義的化身: 看起來很華麗其實根本什麼都沒變. 技術上我們並不短缺令人讚嘆的事物. 更別說這些枝微末節的內容. 科技提供了脫離現實的空間. 令人噁心的說這都是免費的午餐. 其實並不是免費午餐. 因為我們的時間並非無價. 電視行銷者已經擺出了最有效的行銷詞彙之一: "這是免費的"  (另一個是 "你全部都可以吃")

故事的力量

我們愛故事.我的爸媽過去常常用故事娛樂我們與教導我們.舊約聖經大部分是故事集.好的廣告宣傳大多是故事.有時他們是成功的故事.有時則不.最近一個例子我視為高度有效的一個歐洲產品的宣傳.我們在美國有那個產品,但它並未用這種方式行銷.在你看過這個廣告之後,你將不會忘掉這個產品.

我能夠記得最早故事中的一個是 The Little Engine That Could. 媽媽們讀這個故事給小小孩已經超過一個世紀.它教導堅忍.我總是想到這個故事是假的因為它列出菠菜是適合食用的好東西,我想它形塑了我們的行為.樂觀主義認為困難的計畫是成功的基礎.小火車頭認為它能成功,並且他做到了.那是企業家精神的根本.我想不起我童年期的其它故事有同樣的美德,除了小火車頭的對立面Tootle也可以.
Tootle是一個火車頭,它脫軌花時間在軌道上的小花上.火車大師透過行為修正的程序來改變它. 我很早就得到這個訊息. 困難,冒風險的工作取得成功.另外,怪胎會被處理掉.

美國人現在花太多時間在小花上. 亞洲人則不. 我認為行為修正即將以某些形式到來. 美國人將必須回到軌道上來. 他們已經脫軌了.從亞洲來的競爭將變更美國工人的行為 - 能保住工作的那些工人.

亞洲人已經從賣給我們用以脫出軌道的工具中得到利益. 這些工具很便宜. 他們令人眼花撩亂.便宜.令人成癮. 1850年代,西方人用鴉片摧毀中國對於西方進口貨物的政治抵抗. 這是Warren Delano, Franklin Delano Roosevelt的祖父在1860年代使家族富裕的方式. 亞洲人正在回報當年的恩惠. 內建的毒品已經存在於99%的美國家庭裡 (我想向你保證我可以隨時戒掉. 我只是一個社交型的觀眾)

The quality of the stories on TV is not the highest. The big sellers these days are murder mysteries. Other popular stories deal with lesser crimes. The good guys solve the cases. Our faith in the crime-solvers is restored, episode by episode. They work for the government. Private investigators are not around these days. There is no equivalent of Nick Charles, Philip Marlowe, or Mike Hammer. There is no Jim Rockford or Tom Magnum, let alone Sherlock Holmes. There was only one series, ever, on a bounty hunter: Wanted: Dead or Alive. That was Steve McQueen's passport to the big screen. He joined the cops with Bullitt.

電視劇的品質並不好. 最近主要的賣點是秘密謀殺案. 其他受歡迎的故事則比較少犯罪. 好人解決問題. 我們在消除犯罪上的信心一集一集恢復了, 主角們為政府工作. 最近還沒輪到私人調查員. 沒有相當於Nick Charles, Philip Marlowe或 Mike Hammer. 沒有Jim Rockford或 Tom Magnum 使得福爾摩斯極為孤獨. 只有一個賞金獵人系列: 通緝:無論死活. 那是Steve McQueen的大螢幕門票. 他在"警網鐵金剛"加入了警察.

A man nearing death will not recall most of his accomplishments. He will remember some good decisions and some bad ones, but he will not remember many TV shows. He is more likely to remember some really good ads. The TV show is a way to get ads in front of people, and the ads, minute for minute, take more creativity. Now we fast-forward through the ads. This is another nail in network TV's coffin – assuming that anyone still used nails to make coffins.

接近死亡的人不會記得大部分成就.他會記得一些好的與壞的決定,但絶對不會記得很多電視節目.他更可能記得一些真正好的廣告.電視劇是一種把廣告帶到觀眾面前的方式. 而且廣告以分計算. 需用更多創意. 如今我們快轉廣告. 那是網路電視的棺材另一根釘子-如果每個人仍然使用釘子製作棺材.

Good stories shape us. I still think in terms of movie segments. Some men think in terms of The Godfather. I think in terms of Westerns, especially Shane. Casablanca is our Hamlet. But when we fill our lives with formulaic stories whose only message is "don't turn that dial," meaning "don't click that remote," they do not have to be good stories. The stories that are designed merely to entertain and not to reinforce fundamental moral themes in life are not worth listening to, unless they serve as a teetotaller's version of a nightcap before bedtime.

好故事可以形塑我們. 我仍然用某些電影的橋段思考. 某些人用"教父"思考. 我用西部片-特別是原野奇俠. 北非諜影則是我的哈姆雷特. 但當我把我的人生花在公式化的劇情裡,而它只傳達了別關掉,意思是別用遙控器轉台, 它們必然不是好故事. 這些故事設計的橋段只為了娛樂而不是強調生命中重要的道德情操,就不値得聆聽, 除非它們是作為禁酒者的睡前飲料.

TIME AS CAPITAL

How is it that Asia has had a huge trade surplus with the United States? Because its people work long hours. They are finally getting access to capital. This capital increases their productivity. The tools they need to compete are made available through thrift. Then they put capital to use in a long work week. They have little time for leisure. They are at work many hours per day.

In contrast, Americans are losing capital through consumer debt and withdrawal from the labor force. I don't mean unemployed people. I mean underemployed people. The person who watches TV for 4 hours a day is consuming his most precious capital: time.

When we see a society committed to work, we see a society that has the basis for economic growth. If people work hard to get ahead, they will accumulate capital. Their work will become more efficient. If they work merely to buy spare time for play, then they will not experience economic growth.

Asia is growing economically, because of the people's future-orientation. The United States is barely growing, because of its present-orientation. We see this in the waste of time associated with entertainment. This is a culture-wide phenomenon. It has been accelerating in the West for at least 85 years. The rise of radio and the movies marked the transition. World War II delayed the advent of the entertainment culture. The 1950s produced the first teenage subculture. It had its own movies, music, and entertainment. Why? Disposable income from parents and part-time jobs. The money went into our pockets. That was my generation. We spent as children spend, but we spent more money than children ever had spent in history. We got used to entertainment. The counter-culture, 1965–70, was even more committed to entertainment. It even turned cultural revolution into entertainment.

This happened all over the West. It was not a uniquely American phenomenon. The student revolt in France in 1968 was worse than anywhere else.

We now live in a nation that has suffered capital consumption. Foreigners are providing capital for us. Asians buy something like 40% of Treasury debt sold to the public. This will not go on indefinitely.

When we learned to waste time and money in our youth, we developed bad habits. These bad habits are not easily broken. Asians never developed these bad habits. The youth of Asia headed for the cities to get jobs, not entertainment.

CONCLUSION

Once China's real estate bubble has popped, it will be time to move capital into the region that is committed to future-orientation. These people are not just hard workers. They are not merely high-return workers when given capital. They are uniquely future-oriented. This is new to Asia. It is part of the Western influence: Fabian socialism in India and Marxism in China. Both systems limit economic growth, but they are both linear and highly future-oriented: the kingdom of central planning society. When central planning is abandoned because of its inefficiency, the concept of linear history remains.

This shift from West to East is not going to be reversed without something like a religious transformation in the West. Asia is adopting the West's concept of linear time. Meanwhile, the West is abandoning it: "Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we die."

Do not put all of your capital in shares of a sinking ship.

不要把你全部的資本投入在沉沒中的船

競技場上的人，臉上沾滿了塵土與血汗 Man in the Arena

It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." - Theodore Roosevelt ("Citizenship in a Republic" Speech at the Sorbonne, Paris, April 23, 1910)

批評者不可能被算進去: 不會是指出強者如何跌倒或者指出行動者哪邊可以做的更好的那個人.信賴乃屬於那位實際在競技場的人,他的臉被塵土與血汗污穢,他英勇奮鬥,他犯錯並且一而再再而三很快的爬起來,因為沒有成果是不帶著錯誤與缺點的,但他知道他為偉大的熱忱與偉大的奉獻付出的來由是值得的;他知道盡全力最後會達到超乎尋常的成就,最糟的情況下,如果他失敗了至少也是偉大迷人的失敗,因此他永不會與那些既不懂勝利也不知道失敗的冰冷而膽怯的心靈同在.

美債殖利率驟升可能會引爆二次信貸危機

Rising U.S. bond yields may spark Credit Crisis II

新聞來源：http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE54S53620090529?sp=true

By John Parry - Analysis

世界金融危機可能進入第二階段,也是一個致命的階段.借貸成本再次攀升,使得剛萌芽的經濟復甦步履更加蹣跚,才用錢包紮好的銀行業更加衰弱,並再次懲罰所有的投資人.

目前情勢的早期警示徵兆包括了高漲的政府公債殖利率,暴跌的美元匯率,以及美國股市消失的熊市再次探頭.

樂觀者希望全球股市兩個月來脆弱的復甦,美國國庫券殖利率由2008年底的經濟危機谷底的有史最低中開始上揚,以及較不恐怖的經濟數據等等訊號顯示復甦就在轉角處.

但是悲觀面的分析師則堅持這種想法是錯覺.

只要信用危機2.0版加速升級,外國投資人可能會因為數十兆美金的過度借貸懲罰美國政府,這代表除非債券價格變得更便宜.否則他們拒絕購買美債,

明顯的預兆是當投資人開始在今年創紀錄的美國政府借貸需求中卻步時,國庫券殖利率暴漲到六個月高點,本周漲了3.75%,

美國財政部近年計畫賣2兆美金的新債以彌補1兆8千億美金的財政赤字.(譯註:美國年度總GDP為14兆美金)

美元資產賣壓可能會引起高漲的貨幣危機與引發洶湧的通貨膨脹.迫使抵押貸款利率與公司債殖利率上揚,侵蝕經濟活動的任何反彈.
"金融危機是兩個互相纏繞的下降螺旋" 加州柏克萊Contango Capital Advisors執行長George Feiger指出.

第一個來自於銀行危機與巨大的信用緊縮,由2007年中開始,導致2008年股票市場的恐慌,這恐慌導致了至少是20年來最嚴重的美國經濟衰退.

"只要你進入衰退你就會有相當的舊式信用損失," Feiger說."現在是第二站,乃為大規模衰退的必然結果並且它現在正努力尋求出路,"他說.

投資人,擁有大部位美國國庫券市場的許多外國投資人穩定要求較高的殖利率.

為了避免在經濟大衰退以來最糟的金融危機下完全毀滅,對於銀行,保險業,製造業以及證券債券市場進行歷史性援救計劃的支出金額代表著創紀錄的美國政府借貸需求.

但是這麼龐大的債務問題,造成美國冒著逼退關鍵買家的風險:外國中央銀行,他們擁有四分之一的售出的美國國庫券.中國目前超過日本成為最大的這類買主.

"我們正進入我稱之為"市場報復"的階段",佛羅里達州丘比特市Weiss Research Inc.公司總裁Martin Weiss說.

Weiss,因他在銀行系統與經濟的特殊悲觀論點而聞名,目前出版了一本書,書名為:"終極大衰退存活指南".

"市場攻擊每個擁有有毒資產的人"他說.

目前,外國投資者的主要目標是美國政府,因為他自己已經從銀行與犯錯的機構中購買了很多有問題的擔保品,Weiss預期跌價問題將很快擴散到所有美元資產.

Weiss警告,市場賣壓可能推升10年期國庫券殖利率到達約6%.目前他非常強烈要求投資人存放他們存款到短期的國庫券,它帶來較低利率風險.
他說明外國投資人對美國政府的債務發行沒有什麼耐心了.

這個月底發生的事將是蜜月期結束的開始,Weiss說."美金將有大量的近期賣壓."

這個月,相對美元,歐元上漲將近7%.此時10年美國國庫券殖利率基準暴漲到6個月高點到達約3.75%,接近去年12月的50年的2.04%低點的兩倍.

Weiss警告,最終,公司債殖利率,根據美林的資料,雖然仍與國庫券殖利率有一段距離約四個百分點,將會再度暴升.他還補充,在此危機的下一階段,S&P500指數可能跌到500點,他說,指數可能從周五稍早的911點開始下跌.

另一方面,許多經濟學家認為美國政府與聯準會已經避免了重蹈經濟大恐慌的覆轍,藉由快速的安排財務救援計畫以及金融與財政刺激抵銷了消費者支出的下滑.

如今美國經濟與銀行系統仍掙扎著要由兩年的混亂中復元,歐洲的銀行甚至更衰弱,有些分析師擔心這升高了第二次全球系統性危機的威脅越過大西洋散布到美國.

"我想主要危機最可能來自於我們的國境之外,"紐約Mount Kisco的Jerome Levy Forecasting Center董事長David Levy說

Set-Phrase [090403]

kick in
1. (Informal) To contribute (one's share): kicked in a few dollars for the office party.
2. (Informal) To become operative or take effect: "His pituitary kicked in, and his growth was suddenly vertical" Kenneth Browser.
3. (Slang) To die.

In order to achieve high levels of fault tolerance, you need to ensure that if any one of these fails, some system will instantly kick in and fill the void.

The above-mentioned is 2. i suppose